Introduction of Export Tax Rebates Leads to Simultaneous Movement in Module Scheduled Production and Prices [SMM Silicon-Based PV Morning Meeting Summary]

SMM January 12 News:

Silicon metal

price

Last week, SMM oxygen-blown #553 silicon in east China was at 9,200-9,300 yuan/mt, and #421 silicon was at 9,500-9,800 yuan/mt, with spot prices remaining largely stable. The most-traded silicon futures contract fluctuated more widely around 8,500-9,000 yuan/mt, influenced by macro factors and polysilicon news. Market sentiment toward the outlook was not positive, with downstream users and traders mainly procuring low-priced spot cargoes.

Production

Silicon metal production schedule in January declined MoM, partly reflecting production cuts implemented in December and early-month capacity reductions in some northern regions.

Inventory

Social inventory: According to SMM statistics, social inventory of silicon metal in major regions totaled 552,000 mt as of January 8, down 5,000 mt from before the New Year's Day holiday.

Polysilicon

Price

Over the weekend, N-type recharging polysilicon was offered at 51.5-58.5 yuan/kg, the N-type polysilicon price index was 54.86 yuan/kg, and granular polysilicon was offered at 50-58.5 yuan/kg. Polysilicon prices held steady temporarily over the weekend. Due to the impact of last week's anti-monopoly related news, the polysilicon market cooled, with downstream acceptance of polysilicon prices decreasing. Some enterprises with high inventory even have plans to halt production. However, following the announcement of the export tax rebate policy on Friday, which supports cell and module production in January-February, downstream players now have plans to raise prices, and wait-and-see sentiment in the polysilicon market is intensifying. This may bring some positive effects later.

Production

Polysilicon production in January is expected to be 107,800 mt, but some enterprises may gradually halt production in the middle to late part of the month, so output could be lower than previously expected.

Inventory

Polysilicon inventory continued to rise, as recent polysilicon price increases and sharp fluctuations in the downstream market led to extremely low order signing, causing inventory to rise accordingly.

Module

Price

Domestic module prices remained largely stable last week. As upstream sentiment weakened, module makers' willingness to hold prices firm also declined. However, following last Friday's announcement of the impending cancellation of the export tax rebate, overseas order-taking by domestic module enterprises is expected to improve. With overseas demand gradually increasing, domestic supply is expected to tighten, and module prices are likely to be raised. Currently, distributed Topcon 183, 210R, and 210N high-efficiency modules are quoted at 0.697 Yuan/W, 0.712 Yuan/W, and 0.714 Yuan/W, respectively, while centralized Topcon 182/183 and 210N high-efficiency modules are quoted at 0.680 Yuan/W and 0.700 Yuan/W, respectively.

Production

Over the weekend, most module enterprises planned to raise module scheduled production, with January's production schedule expected to increase by a conservatively estimated 4-5 GW compared to previous expectations.

Inventory

Inventory increased slightly last week, but the cancellation of export tax rebates will become a key subsequent impact, and inventory is expected to decline as a result.

High-Purity Quartz Sand

Price

The current domestic price for inner-layer sand is 55,000-60,000 yuan/mt, middle-layer sand is 20,000-30,000 yuan/mt, and outer-layer sand is 15,000-20,000 yuan/mt. The price for imported high-purity quartz sand is 75,000-77,000 yuan/mt. The price for a 33-inch quartz crucible is 6,000-6,200 yuan/piece, and for a 36-inch quartz crucible is 7,000-7,400 yuan/piece. Recent negotiations for imported sand remain in a stalemate.

Production

The production schedule for quartz sand enterprises in January decreased slightly by 2% MoM, and domestic high-purity quartz sand enterprises cut production to match the wafer production schedule.

Inventory

At year-end, crucible enterprises made reasonable purchases based on the wafer production schedule, and the quartz sand inventory level increased slightly.

PV Glass

Price

3.2mm Single-Layer Coating: The quoted price for 3.2mm single-layer coating PV glass is 17-18 yuan/m², and the price declined.

3.2mm Double-Layer Coating: The quoted price for 3.2mm double-layer coating PV glass is 18-19 yuan/m², and the price declined.

2.0mm Single-Layer Coating: The quoted price for 2.0mm single-layer coating PV glass is 10-11 yuan/m². Last week, domestic glass enterprises continued to lower their quotes to stimulate downstream restocking. The current mainstream trading center in the market has dropped to 10-10.5 yuan/m². Downstream enterprises have begun to make purchases, and trading volume is expected to start rising.

2.0mm Double-Layer Coating: The quoted price for 2.0mm double-layer coating PV glass is 11-12 yuan/m², and the price declined.

Production

Domestic operating rates remained largely stable, while a 320 mt/day kiln in Hebei was shut down.

Inventory

Glass inventory levels began to decline, and with subsequent module enterprises continuing to make purchases, days of inventories are expected to continue decreasing.